A-share market under epidemic situation: several main lines stabilizing in general
Hookup reports A-shares, market stability is affirmed!
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”Investor Network” Qin Jian will be an extraordinary year in 2020. During the Spring Festival, people will experience the attack of a new type of coronavirus.
This kind of panic also spread to the capital market. On February 3, the first day of the opening day after the holiday, nearly 3,000 companies in the A-share market fell down. Fortunately, the strength of the combination of epidemic prevention and the upgrade of the A-share market is also fast.Stabilized, some popular sectors even rebounded significantly.
People often say that the crisis is organic, and the stock market will not. On the day after the market opened on February 3, the net inflow of northbound funds exceeded 18 billion yuan throughout the day.
More than 40 stocks such as Northeast Pharmaceuticals, Hengkang Medical, Essence Pharmaceuticals, Weiming Pharmaceutical, Sanxin Medical, Dali Technology, Shangrong Medical, Daun Shares, and Mingde Biological have stopped rising.
In addition, affected by the epidemic, most company employees were forced to work from home, and remote office software such as Ding Nao once collapsed due to excessive traffic. Remote office concept stocks have strengthened and will have smooth communication daily limits; students will be suspended from school, A shares onlineEducation concept is stubborn, Fangzhi Technology, Century Tianhong daily limit; residents can not go out for entertainment, “home economy” is also sought after, e-sports concept stocks are active, three-five interconnected daily limit, electric soul network once daily limit, Kunlun Wanwei ups and downs5%.
However, some stocks of the A-share market have also been speculatively funded because of their concepts. Among them, the science and technology board stock Jiete Bio has been replaced by a company that has been renewed for several years, and the “mask concept” of the subsidiary that it once wanted to recover has expanded by as much as 108%.
There has also been an upward trend in peer stocks due to expected cooperation news. Yongtai Technology products involve the production of anti-infectives, antiviral drugs and intermediates. The company’s downstream customers include Gilead, Bayer, Merck, Hengrui and other internationalMore than well-known domestic companies.
Recently, the company realized that Gilead’s research drug Remusvir (Redivevir) can be used to treat new coronavirus pneumonia. The company is actively approaching downstream customers such as Gilead to find possible cooperation opportunities.The increasing stagnation has also driven the daily limit of chlor-alkali chemicals in the fluorochemical sector.
The epidemic’s gradual cognition stage: the capital market responds to the average time of the epidemic’s progress and the related strategic material stocks related to protection and diagnosis reversed the situation one day after the epidemic event was fermented. The “Investor Network” study found that from December 1, 2019The first patient infected with the new coronavirus 2019-nCov appeared until December 29, 2019, Hubei Hospital reported 4 cases of aggregated unknown cause, and the National Health Commission and the Centers for Disease Control and Intervention investigated until 12020On January 1st, the Wuhan Municipal Public Security Bureau dealt with 8 rumour spreaders according to law, and until January 8, 2020, the new coronavirus was initially confirmed as the cause of the sudden disease outbreak. 20 A-share strategic material stocks and 9 related protection stocksDiagnostic related strategic material stocks will be from December 2, 2019 to January 8, 2020, about a month, except for Xinlong Holdings (000955.
SZ, non-woven fabric material for masks), Guangzhou Langqi (000523.
SZ, Disinfectant), Shanda Huate (000915.
SZ, disinfectant), the average cumulative expansion did not exceed 20%, and the average increase per trading day did not exceed 1%.
This shows that the epidemic situation is gradually cognizant, and the capital market has not responded much.
The initial stage of the epidemic: Partial diagnosis, protection of individual stocks, initial benefit and response to disease fermentation. By January 20, 2020, Academician Zhong Nanshan, the leader of the high-level expert group of the National Health and Medical Commission, and members of the expert group Gao Fu, Li Lanjuan, Yuan Guoyong, Zeng Guang, etc.Interviewed by preventive media, confirmed that the epidemic was transmitted from person to person and infected by medical staff. On the same day, the decision-making level made important instructions on the epidemic situation and required relevant departments to take effective measures to stop the spread of the epidemic situation.
Nine stocks of related strategic materials such as A-share diagnostics gradually increased from January 8 to January 20, 2020, and the slope increased gradually during this period, and the average change was 16%, of which, Shuo Shi Biological (688399).
SH, diagnostic reagents) During this period, it has gradually expanded up to 33%, and announced that it will complete the new coronavirus nucleic acid detection kit and coronavirus universal nucleic acid detection kit on January 13, 2020.
During this period, 20 protection-related strategic material stocks of A-shares gradually expanded and were not significant. Only Inco Medical (300677).
SZ, gloves) and Ogilvy Medical (002950.
SZ, masks) gradually expanded to 20% and 16%, respectively, of which Ogilvy Medical’s mask income in 2018 was less than 5% of that year’s income.
It can be seen that the diagnostic response of individual stocks and some protective product stocks during the initial reflection stage of the epidemic situation are significant.
Epidemic comprehensive response phase: protection, short-term benefits of diagnosis-related stocks, and reduction of disease spread. On January 22, 2020, Hubei launched a public health emergency level II response to January 23, Wuhan, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Hunan provinces announcedLevel I response to major public health emergencies was launched, and mask sales appeared in many cities across the country. The A-share market was closed from January 20 to January 23, 2020, and mask concept listed company Ogilvy Medical (002950).
SZ, mask), Zhende Medical (603301.
SH, mask), Neptune creature (000078.
SZ, masks and protective clothing), TEDA (000652.
SZ mask filter material) During this period, it gradually expanded to 33%, 25%, 20%, and 27%, respectively.
During this period, diagnostic product stocks gradually expanded to an earlier stage of initial epidemic transition, which improved.
SH, diagnostic reagents) gradually expanded to 25%, Mindray Medical continued to show negative growth during the 杭州桑拿网 period.
On February 3, 2020, the A-share market was opened after the holiday season. At this time, the epidemic was in a high-incidence stage, and the tension caused by the epidemic was still there. Among the 20 protection-related strategic material stocks and 9 diagnostic-related strategic material stocks of A-shares, only GuangzhouLang Qi (000523.
SZ, Disinfectant), Shanda Huate (000915.
SZ, disinfectant), Yanjiang shares (300658.
SZ, non-woven materials for masks), Beihua Co., Ltd. (002246.
SZ, masks), Shelley (002076.
SZ, UV lamp), Donghua Energy (002221.
SZ, non-woven material for masks), Wanfu Bio (300482.
SZ, diagnostic reagents), Antu Biological (603658.
SH, diagnostic reagents), Mindray Medical (300760).SZ, diagnostic reagents) rose less than 10% on the day, and the rest were reported at daily 淡水桑拿网 price.
It can be seen that part of the protection and diagnosis related product stocks benefited from short-term benefits in the comprehensive response phase of the epidemic, but as the epidemic is effectively controlled in the future, its upward momentum will be weakened.
疫情全面应对阶段：治疗方案中药品公司市值有望增厚 《湖北日报》2020年1月29日报道，有三种药物在细胞水平上对新型冠状病毒有较好的抑制作用，分别是remdesivir、磷酸氯喹And Ritonavir.
Among them, remdesivir was developed by American biopharmaceutical company Gilead Sciences. At present, no listed company in China has registered such drugs.
Listed companies with chloroquine phosphate drug registration are Bai Yunshan (600332.
SH), essence pharmaceutical (002349.
SZ), Kun Pharmaceutical Group (600422.
SH), Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (002317.
SZ), North China Pharmaceutical (600812.
SH), Jinling Pharmaceutical (000919.
SZ), but generally the revenue of chloroquine phosphate medicines accounts for a small proportion of its total income, and only the secondary market of elite pharmaceuticals is better.
Ritonavir was originally an effective oral inhibitor of human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) and human immunodeficiency virus-2 (HIV-2) aspartic protease, and was used alone or in combination with antiretroviral nucleoside drugs.Patients with advanced or non-progressive AIDS.
At present, domestic production and registration companies include Shanghai Desano Chemical Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. and Wanquan Wante Pharmaceutical (Xiamen) Co., Ltd., of which Hong Kong listed company China Medical Group is an affiliate of Wanquan Wante Pharmaceutical (Xiamen) Co., Ltd.Lopinavir and Ritonavir Tablets). Currently the importers are AbbVie Deutschland GmbH & Co. KG (Germany) and AbbVie Inc (USA).
The fourth edition of the guidebook for the diagnosis and treatment of new coronavirus recommends a-interferon, lopinavir, and ritonavir for general treatment. Among them, a-interferon is listed on the company Anke Bio (300009.
SZ). After the market opened, its stock price fluctuated greatly, and opened higher and lower.
The diagnosis and treatment plan recommends methylprednisolone, Xuebijing, and intestinal micro-ecological regulators for the treatment of severe and critical illness. Among them, Xuebijing represents the listed company Hongri Pharmaceutical (300026.
SZ), the representative listed company of methylprednisolone has Tianyao shares (600488.
SH), Hisco (002653.
SZ), Xianfeng Pharmaceutical (002332.
On the opening day, Hongri Pharmaceutical (300026.
SZ) and Tianyao shares (600488.
SH) Daily limit.
In the fourth version of the new coronavirus diagnosis and treatment program, there are 12 listed companies that are representative of traditional Chinese medicine related medicines. On the opening day, the largest increase was Lianhua Qingwen Capsule on behalf of the listed company Yiling Pharmaceutical (002603.
SZ), an increase of 9.
In the development of the epidemic, there is also a proprietary Chinese medicine Shuanghuanglian oral solution that broke into the eyes of A-share shareholders on January 31, 2020. It represents the listed company Tailong Pharmaceutical (600222.
SH) Close the board directly on the opening day.
Vaccine research and development period: It is too early to contribute profits to the company. Looking back at the previous epidemic vaccine research and development cycle, it can be found that the time period varies and is generally longer.
The SARS epidemic broke out in December 2002. So far, the SARS inactivated vaccine developed by the Beijing Institute of Biological Products is still in clinical research. Similarly, the Ebola vaccine has been on the market for up to 5 years; but type AThe development process of H1N1 is only three months.
As of January 30, 2020, China and overseas have successfully isolated multiple new coronavirus strains.
From the main research and development process of the vaccine, the isolation of the strain is the first step in the development of the vaccine.
Vaccine development is a project that requires high investment and long time.
But the successful isolation of the strains can be said to have taken the first step in the long march of successful vaccine development.
Traditional vaccine research and development is usually based on the entire virus strain, but the traditional vaccine research and development and production cycle is too long, usually the vaccine research and development outbreak has passed.
Research institutes are therefore studying other types of vaccines based on non-viral strains.
The development cycle of such vaccines is shorter than that of traditional vaccines.
It is expected to reduce research and development time and achieve rapid time to market.
Experts have different views on the vaccine under development. On January 28, 2020, Zhong Nanshan said that he consulted some experts. The research and development cycle will not be less than three to four months. He thinks that a longer research and development cycle may be needed.
Goldman also believes that vaccine development will not happen overnight and will take time.On January 29, 2020, Li Lanjuan believed that it is very close to owning the vaccine. We currently have the vaccine seed strain. It takes one and a half months to obtain the vaccine strain, and then one and a half months to approve it.
On February 3, on the day of the opening of the A-share market, vaccine stock Zhongzhifei Biological (300122).
SZ), Kangtai Biological (300601.
SZ), Watson Bio (300142.
SZ) ‘s performance is not significant.
It needs to be reminded that at present, other new vaccines of the new coronavirus have not yet entered the clinical stage.
For listed companies that may benefit from vaccine development and production, it is too early to contribute profits to the company. Therefore, investors are not conscious of it.
(Produced by corporate financial report) ■