Shanghai stock index opened a record 23-year record gold pit cashing?
How 杭州评茶阁 to buy A-shares after the market opens?
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Today’s A-share opening fell much more than expected!
However, in the case of a serious dips in funds, the major stock indexes rebounded rapidly.
Northbound funds swept nearly 4 billion yuan in 25 minutes.
Today, the first trading day after the Spring Festival of A shares, affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, Shanghai and Shenzhen did not unexpectedly open lower.
The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower by 8.
73%, ChiNext refers to a lower opening of 8.
23%, all industry sectors fell, one stock fell on a large scale, more than 3,000 stocks opened at the limit, pharmaceuticals and medical stocks were severely polarized, while 南宁桑拿 anti-flu, masks and other protective medical equipment stocks had a large daily limit, while other general pharmaceutical stocksThe daily limit, tourism, science and technology board, chip, military industry, etc. fell the most.
Judging from the historical decline, the Shanghai Index today is 8.
A 73% drop is a record since 1997.
The market fell sharply, the demand for hedging increased sharply, and the main contract for issuing 10-year Treasury futures rose by 1 at the time of publication.
71%, the main contract of 5-year Treasury futures rose 0.
A-share pharmaceutical sector United Ring Pharmaceutical (5th board), Lukang Medicine (4th board), Sihuan Biological (Protection of Rights) (4th board), Jiangsu Wuzhong (3th board) today’s collective bid limit; medical devicesPlates Ogilvy Medical (3 consecutive boards), Nanwei shares, Teda shares (4 days 3 boards) call auction daily limit.
Northbound funds clearly bottomed out A shares today, with a net inflow of 3 billion in the first 6 minutes of opening; 25 minutes after the opening, the net purchase of northbound funds reached 4 billion.
PetroChina opened down 8.
87%, another record low; Sinopec opened 8 lower.
Peripheral markets have risen in succession. In other Asian stock markets, major indexes have opened lower and higher.
The Nikkei 225 index opened lower by nearly 2% in early trading before rebounding, and the press was terminated. The Nikkei index fell less than 1.
As for the South Korean stock market, the South Korean KOSPI index fell 0.
The Hang Seng Index opened 0 lower.
47%, blue chip stocks fell, consumption, oil and gas, real estate stocks led the decline, Tencent against the market rose more than 1%, pharmaceutical stocks increased.
In the final release, the HSI rose by 0.
Hong Kong stocks drug stocks and flu stocks moved higher.
In the final release, Fusen Pharmaceutical increased by more than 65%. The announcement announced that it would adjust the production capacity of Shuanghuanglian Oral Liquid to enter market demand.
China Pioneer Pharmaceuticals rose 8.
02%, Tai Ling Medicine rose 7.
02%, Shenwei Pharmaceutical rose 6.
21%, Shanghai Pharmaceuticals rose 5.
92%, Baiyun Mountain rose 3.
77%.Last week it was up 1607.
96% of China’s medical group once exceeded 50%.
After the FTSE A50 index opened lower, it clearly rose, terminated publication, and rose 0.
In the commodity market, domestic crude oil futures fell sharply by nearly 8% at the beginning of the opening; gold and silver became safe havens, and gold futures rose by nearly 3%; and thermal coal futures became one of the few growing commodities due to factors such as transportation.
Latest brokerage strategy: “Golden Pit” becomes mainstream Anxin strategy: Grasp “Golden Pit” and seize strategic opportunities From the perspective of various historical experiences, epidemic situation may only be the core contradiction of the market in the most rapid development period.See if the market is still moving in the direction determined by the endogenous trend.
Because the overall situation of coronary disease in the short term will affect the economy to a certain extent, it will also cause a temporary downward movement of the overall market index platform. The market may quickly make up after the holiday to complete the expected adjustment, but the market ‘s medium-to-long-term trendAnd the structure of the main line logic has not been destroyed by the coronary epidemic.
The epidemic situation will always pass. The essence of the market’s fall next week actually brings a “golden pit” of strategic layout, especially the rare opportunities brought by the adjustment of high-quality technology stocks.
The perspective extends to the whole world. If ROE and ROIC of A-share listed companies can stabilize and even rebound, then the A-share market in the financial opening era will still be the most valuable investment in the context of low interest rates and low growth in the world.One of the assets, A shares as a whole is still expected to move towards a long-term slow bull golden age.
Therefore, although it is expected that the new crown epidemic situation will bring some pressure to the short-term market, in the medium term, it will instead be a good allocation period for high-quality companies in various industries.
In the short-term, it is expected that after the market quickly compensates for the decline, structural markets will be developed around industries whose fundamentals are less affected by the epidemic. In the near future, the industry will focus on: media (games, Internet, etc.), new energy vehicles (Tesla industry chain, etc.),Medicine, public utilities, gold, etc. The theme suggest to pay attention to the house economy, science and technology board, etc.
Southwest Securities: The recent epidemic of core assets plunging, buying small and buying small will have two major impacts on the market: First, in the short term, the impact is distorted and the market is expected to show clear signs.
Secondly, in the medium and long term, the epidemic will not change the basic trajectory of market operation. If the amplitude is too large in the short term, it will be an excellent period to increase quality assets.
In terms of short-term shocks, it is mainly achieved by lowering investors’ expectations for the economy.
Overall, the epidemic will depress economic growth in the first quarter by 1-2 examples.
From the perspective of specific industries, the epidemic situation will constitute a direct negative on the consumption-related industries, such as transportation, tourism, catering, hotels, agriculture, animal husbandry, and liquor industries. The profit forecast for the first quarter will be significantly reduced.
Of course, there are also industries that will benefit from the epidemic, such as online games, biomedicine, etc.
In the medium and long term, the epidemic will not change the trend of China’s economic development, nor will it change the long-term growth trend of imported substitutes in related industries.
Core assets in the fields of medicine, communications, electronics, computers, etc., if there is a significant replacement in the post-holiday shock, it is an excellent time to lay out related assets.
In general, there are shocks in the short term and not pessimism in the long term.
As far as core assets are concerned, big plunges and big buys, small plunges and small buys, persist for a long time.
Huatai Strategy: Short-term four-point configuration ideas Before the arrival of the peak of suspected cases (Jin Qilin analyst), the overall market risk appetite, especially the bearish industry, is still under downward pressure.
Short-term four-point configuration guidelines: 1) Optimize the pre-holiday epidemic escalation period, and the strong varieties such as medicine and electric vehicle industry chain when the market falls; 2) Optimize the technology manufacturing that declines in the short term due to the general mood, but the most logical in the medium term;) It is preferred that upstream and midstream equipment and component manufacturers with overseas production capacity and be located in the supply chain of major overseas customers; 4) Short-term attention to online education / online shopping / games / quick-frozen and fast-moving foods that may directly benefit from the epidemic.
In the medium term, the three main lines of the annual strategy: the electric vehicle chain / computer / electronics, and the equipment and parts sector under the manufacturing investment logic also comply with the short-term relative income allocation logic, and gradually move towards “the return of the king”.
China-Thailand strategy: Actively deploy hard technology and new generation consumption.
During the outbreak of SARS, the market panic dropped by 10% and rose by 7% in the later period.
Therefore, there is no need to be afraid of panic decline.
There are two main concerns in the short-term market. One is the change in the epidemic situation, such as the growth rate of newly diagnosed cases; the other is the policy hedging tool, when it will be introduced, and how much effort will be made.
It is recommended to focus on avoiding two aspects. One is the stocks that are most affected by the epidemic, such as the sectors that have suffered short-term consumption shocks (catering, tourism, transportation, film and television, retail, etc.), listed companies in Hubei Province, etc., and the second is the financing purchase.In contrast, the determinants of equity rounds with a high equity pledge are the increase in liquidity and risk appetite.
Before the outbreak, the market believed that the macro economy had stabilized in the short term, at least the pace of monetary policy cuts and interest rate cuts would improve.
However, in contrast, the release of economic data in December and January, and the enthusiastic quotations of hard-tech and new-generation consumption in the era in January have broken the market’s illusion of macroeconomic recovery.
Then the epidemic’s economic growth rate is expected to cause the market to believe that liquidity will be further loosened, so the denominator market can still continue.
However, the increase in risk due to the epidemic situation will be replaced by part of the benefits brought about by the expectation of loose liquidity (this is mainly reflected in the panic period, when the panic period is over, the risk reduction will return to the current level).
We still maintain our judgment on the market structure in 2020.
Don’t expect a big bull market.
Choose structurally and continue to firmly recommend industries and stocks of the era of hard technology and new generations of consumption.
CITIC’s strategy: The impact of the “Golden Pit” epidemic on the way to the “Xiao Kang Niu” ended the rehearsal of the “Xiao Kang Niu” that began in December last year, but at the same time provided a rare configuration opportunity.
We still continue our annual strategic view. We believe that in the second quarter of the transition, the economy will gradually return to the right track.
The “golden pit” dug by the market in February due to the impact of the epidemic will be the best time for configuration.
Short-term trading and long-term deployment opportunities co-exist: 1) Short-term trading opportunities brought by the epidemic itself, focusing on diagnostics companies in medicine, Chinese medicine companies, low-value consumables companies, and retail platforms. Other industries include chemicals for disinfection.Online education, leading supermarkets, games and videos, property management, etc. 2) For the allocation of funds, we still think that the technology sector represented by consumer electronics, semiconductors and new energy vehicles and the medicine represented by innovative drugs are the main lines of transfer. Shortening the adjustment is expected to recover quickly, but the adjustment will bring a lot ofGood chance to get on the bus.
In addition, due to the severe impact of the epidemic, the estimated space has been set aside, and the plate with little actual impact has also ushered in the best allocation time. For the detailed industry, see the main body of the report.
GF strategy: The combination of “economic stabilization + currency easing” at the beginning of 2020 was partially destroyed. The current round of economic impact may be wider than in 2003, and the policy coverage is expected to increase from 2003.
The short-term emotional shock amplitude refers to the decline in the A / H market index of 9-12% in 2003 and the fall of the FTSE China A50 index during the Spring Festival.
4%, the time is slightly shorter than the 8 trading days in 2003; through the epidemic control to clear the market to stabilize, the core logic of the next stage or switch to the more friendly change of the denominatorThe discount rate drives down the main logic of the financial supply side).
In terms of industry configuration, it is expected that the liquidity shock caused by the continuous decline in the market after the holiday will lead to the adjustment of the GEM ratio. However, if the rebound is stabilized, it should also be a leading technology growth.
By 2003, the period in which the fundamentals were affected periodically by the epidemic was (affecting the construction of labor-intensive construction) and offline consumption (such as catering and tourism, cinema lines, traditional retail, and transportation), which had a relatively small impact on technological growth.
It is recommended to use the opportunity of reduced risk expectations and staged discounts of liquidity to configure technological growth (consumer electronics, new energy vehicles, games).
Northeast Securities: The probability of strategic emerging industries being killed by mistake. The inflection point of financial expectations depends on the marginal inflection point of the epidemic data. The impact and inflection point of the real economy are at least cross-quarter, and it depends on the strength of policy support.
The overall strategy is: 1. Industries that are indirectly harmed by the epidemic, such as strategic emerging industries, controversy over the probability of missed opportunities, and pay attention to the core main lines of each industry we introduced; 2. Those affected by the epidemic, such as delivery, tourism, Catering, construction, etc., we must pay close attention to the recovery of passenger flow and industry recovery, and then there will be a rebound space for breakthroughs.
But maybe in the second and third quarters.
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